Sore Losers

We reported last week on the stunning accuracy of online betting site Polymarket in predicting the outcome of the US presidential election far better than most polls.

Punters placed bets worth $3.6 billion, most of this on Trump beating Harris by a margin of about 60-40. Bear in mind most of these bets were placed outside the US, which only recently legalised betting on election outcomes.

This week we learned that the FBI raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, aged 26.

Pic: Shayne Coplan. Youtube screen grab

What on earth is going on here?

“Speculation has swirled around the identities of major bettors who wagered on Trump and whether or not the odds and the existence of the markets could have had an effect on voters,” says NBC News.

Yes, I’m sure voters were swayed by a betting site. Or perhaps this is a case of accurate polling where people don’t just offer no-consequence opinions, but back that up with hard cash.

Blockchain-based Polymarket responded that the FBI raid in search of “wrongdoing” was an obvious political retribution by the outgoing Biden administration for correctly calling the 2024 presidential election outcome.

Bear in mind that Polymarket is completely agnostic as to the outcome of the election. It simply takes bets.

“Polymarket is a fully transparent prediction market that helps everyday people better understand the events that matter most to them, including elections,” said a spokesperson for the company following the FBI raid.

“We charge no fees, take no trading positions, and allow observers from around the world to analyze all market data as a public good. We look forward to standing up for ourselves and our community and continuing to help everyday people understand important world events.”

We’re entering an interesting age where betting markets are able to predict vox populi issues such as elections with increasing accuracy. Polymarket also correctly called President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race prior to the election.

I doubt the FBI can derail this train.