Considering the JSE’s average annual return over the last decade is roughly 11% and about 15% a year for the S&P 500, you’d be far better off investing abroad.

Taking a look closer to home, you can see some spectacular returns from JSE stocks so far this year: Gold Fields up 128%, Anglogold Ashanti up 151%, Sibanye Stillwater up 161%, Northam Platinum up 128%. 

Portfolio manager Chris Reddy of All Weather Capital has put this into a chart and called it the “Terrific 10”. 

“Similar to how the US has the Mag 7 that has driven the bulk of the gains there, SA has its own Terrific 10. These 10 shares have contributed 94% of the SWIX's total gains of 20.8% ytd. The Top 3 accounted for 52%!”

Note that the top performing shares this year are all mining stocks, with gold miners leading the way (Sibanye mines both platinum metals and gold). It demonstrates that there is always value on the local markets, particularly if you are picky. Several fund managers picked gold stocks to run and believed platinum was due for a rerating. And so it has worked out. 

These are volatile stocks, and highly responsive to global events (such as tariffs and war).

The bottom line though is that the JSE has not been a fun place to be for the last decade. Companies are leaving the exchange because of high regulatory costs, economic growth is limp at best, there’s not a lot of choice and earnings per share have barely kept pace with inflation.

Until growth in SA starts hitting the 3%-plus level, these trends will persist. The flow of capital will remain outbound so long as the country fails to put growth and reform at the top of the agenda. In the meantime, mining stocks are providing some relief to long-suffering JSE investors.

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