You might be confused about all the polls declaring the US election “too close to call”.

In the end Donald Trump swept the boards, even in so-called swing states where the result could go either way.

We had a sense that many of the polls that predicted a “close finish” or even a “Kamala Harris win” were wrong because we were looking at where the money was going – Polymarket, the blockchain-based betting platform where punters placed $2.7 billion in bets on whether Trump would beat Harris.

Polymarket had Trump at nearly 60-40 odds over Harris. That was far more accurate than most polls, notwithstanding the fact that Polymarket is not accessible to Americans. And this, despite accusations against Polymarket of market manipulation in the form of “wash trading” – where bets are placed in high volume by individual punters to create the false impression of popular sentiment.

In the end, none of that mattered. The people who put money down in the form of bets got it right.

Bitcoin responded by hitting a new all-time high above $76,000. Trump is seen as crypto-friendly, Harris less so.

Bitcoin loves Trump

The S&P 500 also took a shine to the election outcome, as seen in the chart below. Business evidently likes the idea of Trump in the White House, though we may be jumping the gun here by assuming boom times ahead for the US economy, given the potential for reigniting a trade war with China.

S&P 500

What’s interesting about Polymarket is its potential to displace political polling. I’d rather place my trust in people who are actually putting money on a particular outcome, rather than those canvassing no-consequence opinions by phone or on social media.

The “science” of polling in a highly charged atmosphere such as exists in the USA has been brutally exposed.

Long live the betting markets!