Trump coming for SA?
It certainly seems so. His newly-appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he will not be visiting South Africa for the G20 summit.
He recently fired off this broadside on X.com:
"I will NOT attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg.
South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote “solidarity, equality, & sustainability.” In other words: DEI and climate change.
My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism."
The anti-Americanism part suggests he is displeased with SA’s complaint against Israel before the International Court of Justice in 2023.
US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have also been targeting SA for what they say are human rights violations. Musk has Trump’s ear on SA’s ever-lengthening list of race-based laws, and we can expect retribution for that.
Trump will almost certainly follow up with some form of punishment, either increased tariffs, sanctions or the abolition of AGOA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a preferential trade programme that went into effect in 2000. One of the biggest beneficiaries was SA’s auto sector.
In 2013, motor vehicles accounted for 25% of South Africa’s exports to the US. However, by 2022, this figure had diminished to around 10%. SA now directs almost two-thirds of its automotive exports to the EU.
If AGOA disappears, it won’t be that serious – we would lose about 2.7% of total exports to the US, according to this study by the Brookings Institute. Most exports from SA to the US do not benefit from AGOA, but the US could suffer in some critical areas: for example, in 2021 it imported nearly 100% of its chromium from South Africa as well as over 25% of its manganese, titanium, and platinum.
Trump’s team will be aware of this reality, so the punishment could come in less obvious ways, by targeting individual politicians – just as the US has done to Zimbabwe – or by outright sanctions against certain sectors. He will no doubt make a dramatic and aggressive announcement, just as he did with Canada and Mexico (where he announced tariffs of 25% on their imports, and then paused this), but either way, it won’t be pleasant.
