Are You Just Going to Sit There and Watch?

We’ve been through five years or so of hearing “it’s a scam”, “it’s going to zero” and other such drivel, some of it from people who run huge funds. We’re talking about bitcoin (BTC) of course.

It’s clear they don’t get it. The notion of sound money, that is.

It’s always a sound rule of money to follow what the big money is doing. Paul Tudor of Tudor Investment Corp has increased his bitcoin holdings to about $160 million in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin (4,428,230 shares), an increase of 400% since June 2024.

The launch of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in early 2024 has lit a fire under professional fund managers.

Clients are looking at the 100%-plus gains in each of the last two years and wondering why they aren’t getting any of it. It’s obvious that fund managers are being pressured to get with the programme. In other words, get their hands on some bitcoin.

Is it too late?

We always think it’s too late. It was too late five years ago and it will be too late five years from now. Those who acquired BTC 10 years ago are set up for life. Those who acquire it now will probably look like financial geniuses 10 years from now.

We don’t pay much attention to forecasts, but they’re fun. Take a look at the table below which is from Longforecast.com. By the end of 2025 it sees BTC at $262k, and $475k by the end of 2026. It forecasts a bear market in 2027 and 2028 with a “retreat” to $170k, which would be a 64% drawdown (the last bear market took BTC down about 70%).

What we know is that predictions are not accurate and a bear market may come sooner. And we will not know the peak or bottom until it has passed us by.

But what is certain is this train is moving, and fast.

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