Budget brawl: Is SA racing toward a constitutional crisis?
The clock’s ticking—April 1, 2025, looms like a guillotine over the Government of National Unity (GNU), with the 2025 Budget dangling in limbo. No deal by then, and we’re staring down a financial freefall that could torch governance, shred wallets, and leave public trust in ashes. Dubbed “chaotic” and the “worst Budget ever”—high praise amid SA’s rogue gallery of fiscal flops—this beast’s got taxpayers gagging.
There’s plenty wrong with this Budget, but a few points stand out: no bracket creep fix for two years, so your inflation-bumped pay just hands SARS an extra R18 billion. Then there’s the VAT gut-punch: 0.5% now, another 0.5% next year, inching us to 17%. The ANC blinked from its 2% hike fantasy, but don’t cheer—it ditched inflation adjustments, leaving you squeezed tighter. Oh, and SARS gets R7.5 billion more to sharpen its claws—because nothing screams efficiency like the taxman on steroids.
Households are bled dry while government splurges like a kid in a candy store. We’re past the Laffer Curve’s peak—tax hikes now choke revenue or kill it dead. Pushback’s fierce: the ANC’s 159 seats can’t hit the needed 201 votes in Parliament without the DA’s 87, and John Steenhuisen’s spitting fire over the “VAT chaos.” The EFF (39) and MK (58) are out too—no GNU unity, no Budget.
What’s next if April 1 hits with no handshake? Buckle up:
- Parliament implosion: The Budget flops—ANC’s 40% plus DA dissent leaves it 42 votes shy. No majority, no money.
- Last year’s crumbs: The Public Finance Management Act (Section 27) lets spending limp on 2024’s R2.04 trillion for four months—till July 31. No new cash for Transnet’s R85 billion dreams or water fixes (R25 billion debt). Inflation? Crises? Tough luck.
- Backroom scrambling: Deputy president Paul Mashatile will have to scramble to trim VAT, slash R53 billion via DA’s suggested pension holiday for public servants, or hunt ghost grants (of the 28 million social grant recipients, how many are fake?).
- Economic meltdown: Borrowing costs spike (debt’s 76.2% of GDP) which in turn puts to rest any hope of achieving 1.6% growth this year, and COSATU’s strike drums beat louder—33.5% jobless won’t take this lying down.
- GNU collapse? What if the IFP and DA bolt from the GNU (maybe not likely, but not impossible). This could cue a no-confidence vote or snap election. Chaos reigns.
- Constitutional clash: Post-July, it’s emergency bills or courtrooms—Section 216 looms if Treasury can’t fund the mess.
The real villain? The Guptas’ ghost—Transnet’s R135 billion debt, half from state capture’s loot-fest, hangs like a noose. Not one of the crooks responsible has been jailed, yet taxpayers foot the bill—VAT’s just the bitter pill for that heist.
Why not take a Musk-style machete to it? Slash spending, cap Treasury’s blank checks—say “Enough!” like Elon’s US crew gutting waste. Without that, we’re hurtling toward a Constitutional showdown—Parliament vs. the people, with no brakes.
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