Are we in a bitcoin super cycle?

Never mind that bitcoin (BTC) is down 26%from its $126,198 peak reached on 6 October 2025.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ),speaking at the recent Bitcoin MENA conference, argued that the historical four-year cycles – where bitcoin entered a bull phase after halving events and then a bear phase – may be over.

In fact, we may now be in a bitcoin super-cycle.

The reason is the shift from retail to institutional buyers of BTC. That never existed before.

“CZ sees potential for growth through integration with traditional payment infrastructure,” notes BitcoinMagazine.

Tools like crypto cards, where users pay in cryptocurrency but merchants receive fiat, allow demand to grow on the user side and lay the groundwork for more widespread adoption.

Stable coins, he noted, will also play a key role in facilitating transactions without undermining bitcoin’s investment appeal.

Events which could drive liquidity into crypto markets include US rate cuts and quantitative easing – all of which will further debase the USD’s value.

There is a body of evidence pointing to a change in BTC market dynamics, though we would be cautious arguing “this time it’s different”. We are seeing prolonged lower-volatility uptrends with shallower corrections (20-40% dips) likely extending beyond 2025-2026.

Here’s some examples:

1.        $64 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows for the year to day in 2025 has never before been seen. This is absorbing whale dumps at lightning speed, helping to cushion the downside.

2.        BTC has de-coupled from macro events, showing greater correlation to gold than to M2 money supply growth, as was previously the case. In other words, it is seen as a hedge asset, less tied to monetary policy cycles.

3.        Technical indicators point toBTC being oversold at current prices ($91k) with early stage bull signals appearing.

4.        Respected investment house ArkInvest notes BTC has performed at more than twice historical averages and has multi-year upside.

Forecasts and predictions show a range of outcomes for 2026: between $150k and $200k.

CZ’s prediction of a super-cycle appears to have some merit: institutional buying has not evaporated during the recent downturn, in fact it bounced back with a vengeance in the last week. The technical charts do not show the type of top normally seen in previous BTC late-stage bull markets.

Bitcoin in ZAR

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As a final point worth noting, there is a clear double bottom forming in November and December. The question remains to be seen: will we see a Xmas rally as has happened in previous cycles?