Polymarket Predicts Trump to Win US Election

Cryptocurrency-based predictions market Polymarket has Trump winning the US elections. That’s based on betting odds which give Trump a 59% probability of winning. The polls are telling a different story, many of which are showing a dead heat.

Source: Polymarket

It’s perhaps worth paying attention to Polymarket. The big fund managers certainly do. “Among big-name financial firms tracking the platform is JPMorgan Chase & Co., which has used the odds from the site to build long and short baskets of stocks that are expected to rise or fall depending on the outcome of the election,” says Livemint.com.

Polymarket is not available in the US, so the bets do not reflect the views of US voters, but this does not mean it should be ignored. There’s also talk that large bets placed by a handful of individuals can swing the betting odds. There also seems to be some evidence of “wash trading” – traders buy and sell shares quickly to create a false impression of heavy volumes.

Another betting site, Kalshi, also has Trump winning the race. So far, $123 million has been bet on the US presidential election outcome.

“Given how much Americans are willing to bet on sports, political betting has the potential for massive growth in future election cycles,” says Axios.com.

This is the first time that betting has been allowed on election outcomes in the US, and we would need to build up a history of betting patterns to see if this is accurate in predicting results.

What makes the Polymarket betting interesting is that it is backed by crypto enthusiasts who may instinctively lean towards Trump as the more pro-crypto candidate. If Trump gets in, he has hinted that he would start accumulating bitcoin as a Treasury reserve asset.